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Aapa

Mirajmom
Assalaam walaikum,


Brother Abu'muhammad, that is my nightmare. I do not wish to be near that monster.

Do not get bored that is very sad...and stress is gone when you are not bored.

I am planning to go cross-country with my sons..they want to leave West Virginia. Insha'Allah I will make a video of my travels.
Now, I could do that cross-country...the tunnel thing...that would be fun...you could walk while traveling.
 

arzafar

Junior Member
Assalam Walaikum,

No I did not. I was thinking technology, increasing efficiency and the human mind.

It's true that the world has finite resources, it's true that the population is growing so their is less resources/energy per person, and it's true that exponential growth cannot go on forever in a finite world. But did not industrial civilization also give way to technology? Which made processes more efficient? As you said:

"the energy per capita that we consume in our lifetime is more than that consumed by the wealthiest kings and emperor in the days gone by. just look at the electric units consumed at your home. how many slaves would be required to provide that sort of power?"

I doubt we will go back to horse draw carriages.

"There have been many powerful, prosperous civilizations in history; all peaked, all declined and their remains can be found in museums today"

I think this is due more to wrong priorities, greediness and etc.

For most civilizations in history, food was the limiting agent.
For our industrial civilization, oil is the limiting agent.
For any civilization, net energy is the limiting agent.
Note: food = energy for the body


I think their is no limiting agent when it comes to the human mind and spirit. We know this, why not change it?

1) I was thinking technology, increasing efficiency and the human mind.

aah the good old technology. say there are 100 bbls of oil. without technology we can get 60%, with technological advancement we might be able to get 80% but we can only go as high as 100 - that's the mathematical limit.

then you have the economics of the whole thing. when the oil was first discovered, it was dirt cheap. you could get extract 100 bbls of oil for 1 bbls of energy you used. now that ratio is somewhere around 14bbl:1bbls. reason is simple. Most of the cheap , shallow oil is gone. now we have to drill deeper, use advanced technology, take risks (GOM saga), increase refining and basically invest a much larger amount of energy to extract the same amount of oil. This concept is called EROEI (energy return on energy invested). this factor is reducing for oil. once this factor reaches a value of 1, even if there is a zillion barrels in the ground it's useless because we'll need a zillion barrel worth of energy to extract those zillion barrels from the ground. that is the mathematical limit.

however their is practical limit as well which arrives much earlier then the mathematical limit (ERORI =1). A field is shut down when the cost of production becomes higher then revenues.

higher efficiency will only help prolong 'business as usual' or perhaps steady the decline a little bit. but the fact is that efficiency and technology cannot stretch mathematical limits. if there are 5 sweets, one may consume them over 5 days or 10 days but 5 sweets shall remain 5 sweets.

2. I doubt we will go back to horse draw carriages.

when Watt marketed his steam engine he compared the output of his engine with the work output of the average horses. obviously the engine's output was much higher and the work done much cheaper. hence, engines replaced horses because they were far economical
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horsepower#History_of_the_unit

so what happens when our modern engines dont have fuel (oil, gas and coal)?
what happens when running and maintaining cars becomes more expensive then running and maintaining horse carriages. we have used up most of the wood so old steam engines wont last long.

then there is the electric car. perhaps most people dont know that the first electric cars were manufactured in the late 19th and early 20th century. Ever since the diesel engine was invented they were shifted to the museums. why? same as how Watt manged to replace horses with his steam engines.

remember oil is more than just fuel, in fat we should stop using it as fuel.
"Considering the many productive uses of petroleum, burning it for fuel is like burning a Picasso for heat."

3. I think this is due more to wrong priorities, greediness and etc.

such as "sustainable growth" and not securing a ample food supply and storage. droughts and famines have been the biggest killers in years gone by.

4. I think their is no limiting agent when it comes to the human mind and spirit. We know this, why not change it?

that's what im saying we have to go back to the future. we must learn how to grow our own food, ride horses, rear animals etc. fortunately we still have a few decades to make the transition. in any case those who dont make the transition will be left behind in the chaos. The physical limits still apply to our daily lives.

"My grandfather rode a camel, my father rode a camel, I drive a Mercedes, my son drives a Land Rover, his son will drive a Land Rover, but his son will ride a camel." Rashid bin Saeed Al Maktoum, late Emir of Dubai

note: im not saying we are all doomed. all im saying is that unless we change we will be doomed. also these things wont happen over night. they will happen over a course of decades. but the signs are already there.
resource wars - check.
mass starvation in africa - check.
financial collapse and recession - check

the party is over and now the hangover is about to commence.
 

rayray

Junior Member
that's what im saying we have to go back to the future. we must learn how to grow our own food, ride horses, rear animals etc. fortunately we still have a few decades to make the transition. in any case those who dont make the transition will be left behind in the chaos. The physical limits still apply to our daily lives.

note: im not saying we are all doomed. all im saying is that unless we change we will be doomed. also these things wont happen over night. they will happen over a course of decades. but the signs are already there.



A change is indeed needed. But I really think we won't go back to rearing horses and etc. We will keep our technology. I think what has to change, or what is lacking rather, is how we look at waste. There shouldn't be any waste.

In nature everything is recycled. That includes energy. Decomposers.

Where does all our energy come from? The sun.
When will the sun die? A very long time.
Since when has the sun been supplying us energy? Since forever.

We have been using up the energy harnessed from the sun a long time ago -crude oil.

The energy and resource we need is all around us. It's just in a format we think we could not use. Waste is just inefficient design, and humans are getting smarter.

One of the failures of the economic system today is it's "one lined" Very little is recovered. We use resources, produce goods, people buy, when it becomes obsolete, it ends up in the landfill. In nature, that wouldn't happen, or rather, the time it takes for the "energy to go back" is shorter.

That's what I'm investing in. That's what I want to do.

Bottom line, resources are not limited. People's attitude is the main factor that needs to change.
 

elysetexel

Junior Member
that's what im saying we have to go back to the future. we must learn how to grow our own food, ride horses, rear animals etc. fortunately we still have a few decades to make the transition. in any case those who dont make the transition will be left behind in the chaos. The physical limits still apply to our daily lives.

note: im not saying we are all doomed. all im saying is that unless we change we will be doomed. also these things wont happen over night. they will happen over a course of decades. but the signs are already there.



A change is indeed needed. But I really think we won't go back to rearing horses and etc. We will keep our technology. I think what has to change, or what is lacking rather, is how we look at waste. There shouldn't be any waste.

In nature everything is recycled. That includes energy. Decomposers.

Where does all our energy come from? The sun.
When will the sun die? A very long time.
Since when has the sun been supplying us energy? Since forever.

We have been using up the energy harnessed from the sun a long time ago -crude oil.

The energy and resource we need is all around us. It's just in a format we think we could not use. Waste is just inefficient design, and humans are getting smarter.

One of the failures of the economic system today is it's "one lined" Very little is recovered. We use resources, produce goods, people buy, when it becomes obsolete, it ends up in the landfill. In nature, that wouldn't happen, or rather, the time it takes for the "energy to go back" is shorter.

That's what I'm investing in. That's what I want to do.

Bottom line, resources are not limited. People's attitude is the main factor that needs to change.

I must say I really like your vieuw. We are to far away from nature. Even when we don't have electricity for an hour people are getting stressed because nothing works properly.
Back into the future, learn about how our ancestors lived!


salaam
 

arzafar

Junior Member
that's what im saying we have to go back to the future. we must learn how to grow our own food, ride horses, rear animals etc. fortunately we still have a few decades to make the transition. in any case those who dont make the transition will be left behind in the chaos. The physical limits still apply to our daily lives.

note: im not saying we are all doomed. all im saying is that unless we change we will be doomed. also these things wont happen over night. they will happen over a course of decades. but the signs are already there.



A change is indeed needed. But I really think we won't go back to rearing horses and etc. We will keep our technology. I think what has to change, or what is lacking rather, is how we look at waste. There shouldn't be any waste.

In nature everything is recycled. That includes energy. Decomposers.

Where does all our energy come from? The sun.
When will the sun die? A very long time.
Since when has the sun been supplying us energy? Since forever.

We have been using up the energy harnessed from the sun a long time ago -crude oil.

The energy and resource we need is all around us. It's just in a format we think we could not use. Waste is just inefficient design, and humans are getting smarter.

One of the failures of the economic system today is it's "one lined" Very little is recovered. We use resources, produce goods, people buy, when it becomes obsolete, it ends up in the landfill. In nature, that wouldn't happen, or rather, the time it takes for the "energy to go back" is shorter.

That's what I'm investing in. That's what I want to do.

Bottom line, resources are not limited. People's attitude is the main factor that needs to change.

All industrial processes waste a lot of energy and recycling is not an exception. now when we talk about energy we can only use it in a few forms. It's impossible not to have any wasted energy (2nd law of thermodynamics) in any process.but industrial civilization is all about processed goods. we have powdered milk, skimmed milk, low fat cheese. Every process added, wastes more energy. what we can do to minimize wasted energy is to reduce processing by using things found in their natural form.

eg. using butter rather than margarine
and donkeys, horses instead of cars. these animals feed on grass, their waste acts as fertilizer to grow more grass. all we need is some sun and rain. That's as efficient as it can get. the technology here is unbelievably smart.

At present processing is still economical enough so that people an afford processed goods. however that wont be the case for long. crude oil takes millions of years to form inside the earth. it's irreplaceable in it's energy density and as a raw material for a host of goods. so are the many rare earth metals/minerals that we have already used in manufacturing industrial goods. eg. phosphorous, lithium etc. these things cannot be recycled. they are gone forever.

Bottom line, resources are not limited.

it doesnt matter. what matters is whether the resources are present in a useful form or can be converted into a useful form economically.

for eg.
1 sunlight can be converted to electricity
2 waterfalls/dams can be used to harness electricity.
3 fossil fuels can be used to produce electricity, heat or drive cars.

we have the technology and the materials that make these happen. what happens when we cant manufacture or maintain copper wires, engine parts, dynamos, glass? how long can we recycle for? every recycle reduces efficiency of the machine.
 

stiks

Amatur-Rahman
Assalaam walaikum,

This is too Orwellian for my tastes. I am having nightmares about the machine getting clogged and I am trapped between the rails with a bus full of conservative right wing Muslim hating Zionist licking middle aged menapausal women.

I always perfer the slow road to China. You can take in the sights and contemplate.

:wasalam:

looooooooooooooooool
 

arzafar

Junior Member
We'll see in the future

inshallah.
if you're intrigued by those ideas or want to know more id highly recommend the following.

1) theoildrum.com - most gloomy
2) The Party's Over: Oil, War, and the Fate of Industrial Societies (2003)
3) Peak Everything: Waking Up to the Century of Declines (2007)
4) The twilight in the desert

and basically search the author Heinberg. His books are the most balanced.
 
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