Statistics Quiz

[septithol]

Here is a pleasant little quiz, based on mathematics.

You are on a game show, for the chance to win a new car. There are 3 doors on the stage, A, B, and C. Behind one of the doors is a new car. Behind the other two doors are goats. The game show host, Monty, asks you to pick a door, and you pick door A.

After you pick door A, Monty opens door B, and shows you that there is a goat behind it. He then asks, if you would like to change from door A to door C.

Would you change to door C? Would doing so make your chances of winning better or worse? Or do you think Monty is trying to trick you?

Let me know what you think, and then I will explain the right answer.

 

[alf2]

I would choose door C in hopes he would open A.

 

[BrotherInIslam7]

Hello there,

Ah.. The classic Monty Hall problem.. This has been discussed umpteen times in various statistics class.

The first pick/choice was made with 3 options, given you a likelihood of 1/3 in guessing correctly.

Whereas once the one of the door is revealed, you have a 50-50 chance to get it right. So you would switch your choice (in this case door C) to have a higher probability of 1/2 of getting it right.

 

[sachin4islam]

Are all the doors of same dimensions?.

 

[Tabassum07]

:salam2:

Hmm, I wonder if we can actually go on these kinds of game shows. And if we win the car - is it halal to use? You know, halal income and all that.

(Sorry for destroying the fun! Hey don't push me out of the thread....)

 

[septithol]

Hello there,

Ah.. The classic Monty Hall problem.. This has been discussed umpteen times in various statistics class.

The first pick/choice was made with 3 options, given you a likelihood of 1/3 in guessing correctly.

Whereas once the one of the door is revealed, you have a 50-50 chance to get it right. So you would switch your choice (in this case door C) to have a higher probability of 1/2 of getting it right.

Brother: Close, except the chances of winning with door C are now 66%, not 50% (or 1/2).

Now, can you explain WHY the chances of winning with door C are now 66%?

 

[Ershad]

Brother: Close, except the chances of winning with door C are now 66%, not 50% (or 1/2).

Now, can you explain WHY the chances of winning with door C are now 66%?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem#Other_simple_solutions

 

[septithol]

Tee Hee

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem#Other_simple_solutions

Very good. I'll come up with some more fun problems pretty soon.