The dismantling of Syria and the violence ensuing during the civil war will completely tear apart the neighboring countries, and this is how the map will look:
An Alawite state will arise on the shores of the Mediterranean Sea, between Turkey and Lebanon. It will be ruled and populated by Alawites who escaped Damascus and Aleppo and fled towards their traditional regions. Such a state would barricade itself behind thousands of conventional and chemical missiles, as well as the best equipment, planes, ships, tanks, artillery and anti-aircraft weaponry that can be stolen from the Alawite officers' class and transferred to this region. The Alawite state will also be protected by Russia, who will retain its bases in the Mediterranean in Latakiya and Tartus.
The Sunnis on their part will take over the Damascus- Homs- Aleppo route and all of the eastern desert, and will most likely join with the Sunnis in Iraq in order to form a large enough territory and population. They will remain in possession of light weaponry, armored carriers, unsophisticated Katyusha rockets and old planes. Their patron will be Saudi Arabia.
The violence between Sunnis, Alawites, Hizballah's forces and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard in Syria will collect a toll of tens of thousands of casualties and will cascade into a war in Lebanon. The disconnected Hizballah will be forced to form a state that will be as large as possible from Beirut southwards. They will capture Sidon, but will be forced to give up the Beqaa valley, which will fall into Sunni hands. The Hizballah state will be in conflict with the Sunnis in Lebanon, with the new Syria and with Egypt and Turkey, who are both Sunni. It will point the thousands of Katyusha rockets and armaments that it will smuggle from the disintegrating Syria northwards and eastwards and not towards Israel, who will be a silent partner in practice. The violence between Sunnis and Shiites in Syria and Lebanon will pour out into Iraq, where the Sunnis will be driven out of Baghdad by the Shiite majority and Iran. The Sunnis, who will be in control of the areas between Mosul and Baghdad and also the Anbar district, will most likely join with the Sunni majority in Syria and with Saudi Arabia on their southern border.
With the dismantling of Syria and Iraq it is expected that the Kurdish minority in both countries, who together have a population of 7 million people, living in a territory that is 5 times larger than Israel, will join together in order to form an independent Kurdish state. The Kurdish state will benefit from being the buffer between the Shiites, Sunnis, Persians, Turks and Arabs.
The civil war in Syria and Lebanon will place the 700,000 Palestinian refugees in a problematic situation, and the violence will force them to flee to a safer place, where they can be a majority (Israel or Jordan). If Israel guards its borders well enough, another half of a million Palestinians in Jordan will tilt the scale in favor of the end of the Hashemite regime and Jordan will ultimately become a Palestinian state.
Israel must be patient and consider how it can fit into the new Middle Eastern map, and remember who the Zionist movement's allies were in the 1940s and 1950s: The Shiites, the Persians, the Kurds, the Druze, the Bedouins and the Christians.
Therefore, an alliance with the Alawites, Hizballah and Iran will guarantee two fronts less to worry about: the northern front and the coast. As soon as a Palestinian state forms in Jordan, the Arab and international pressure as well as the issue of "Right of Return" will drop by themselves.
Israel must use caution, foremost towards Egypt, which will remain a large homogenous state with a strong army, and towards Saudi Arabia, who is armed to the teeth and organized around a solid leadership and a clear religious ideology.
